Quick update on my thoughts of the market.
In order to verify that full capitulation has taken place and accumulation is underway, the aSOPR value would ideally need to recover back above 1.0.
The aSOPR is the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio which compares the value of outputs at the time they are spent to when they were created.
It is important to note that the average time spent underneath the realised price during bear markets is 197 days, we have had 35 days so far, not exactly close to the average yet.
Then we have the macro effects that crypto have never experienced on this scale before, numerous mining companies still in trouble, the Terra Labs, 3AC & Celsius effect is not finished yet, fed rate hikes continuation expected till the end of the year.
We are not out of the woods yet in my opinion, I truly hope the bottom is in and we see explosive upwards trajectory from here but it doesn’t quite add up for me, I try to take everything into consideration and make a decision based on my findings and confirmation of a bull market.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s not all doom and gloom, accumulation, DCA, day and swing trading can make you fantastic money during this time but please be wary before going all in on crypto right now, I dislike what cash stands for but cash is king during times like this.
Slight reality check, Bitcoin has come from $68K down to $17.6K and with a small move back up to $22K and hovering, testing resistance a few times, little breakout occurred but 100% confirmed bottom is in, bear market is over and moon lambo time????
We are 2/3 down from highs, we could be 85% down or more before this is over, we have been in a downward trend for 8 months, then there are these possible macro effects still to come: stock market crash, housing crash, futures and options expiries and finally the potential dump of 141,000 BTC that counts for 8% of the total daily volume courtesy of the Mt Gox pay-out.
Hmm, not fully convinced about that bottom being in just yet guys but let’s “hope” that it is.